**Forecast models and official guidance point to a peak temperature near the seasonal normal for early August in Warsaw, with most runs converging on 24–26°C.** This distribution underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25°C (57.5 %), followed by 24°C (22 %) and 26°C (18.5 %). Climatologically, Warsaw’s August daily maxima average 23–25 °C and decline modestly through the month; the current pattern shows no strong warm-air advection or blocking high that would push readings well above or below this range. Recent model updates from sources such as the Met Office, BBC, and local Polish meteorological guidance have stabilized around 24–26 °C, with only minor run-to-run variability tied to cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. No heatwave alerts or rapid temperature rises have appeared in the last 48 hours, keeping the probability mass tightly clustered around the long-term mean and explaining why outcomes outside 24–26 °C carry sharply lower implied odds.