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Politika·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
Politika·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

Gio Spinella 30.1%

Mehreen Malik 29.3%

Siân Berry 29.1%

Georgia Gould 28%

Polymarket
BAGO

Gio Spinella 30.1%

Mehreen Malik 29.3%

Siân Berry 29.1%

Georgia Gould 28%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Gio Spinella

Gio Spinella

$20 Vol.

30%

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Mehreen Malik

$20 Vol.

29%

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Siân Berry

$20 Vol.

29%

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Georgia Gould

$20 Vol.

28%

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Sagal Abdi-Wali

$78 Vol.

24%

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Zack Polanski

$66 Vol.

23%

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Luisa Porritt

$20 Vol.

7%

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Pat Callaghan

$20 Vol.

7%

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Hamza Chowdhury

$40 Vol.

7%

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James White

$20 Vol.

7%

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Keith Moffitt

$20 Vol.

6%

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Adam Harrison

$20 Vol.

6%

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Richard Olszewski

$20 Vol.

6%

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Sarah Hayward

$20 Vol.

6%

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Oliver Cooper

$20 Vol.

5%

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David Roberts

$20 Vol.

5%

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Tricia Leman

$20 Vol.

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Charlie Clinton

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Lorna Jane Russell

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David Stansell

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Sarah Pochin

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Jim Monahan

$20 Vol.

4%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).**The announcement of Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on 1 September 2026 has triggered a by-election in the historically safe Labour seat of Holborn and St Pancras, with Labour due to select its candidate by 9 September.** Recent Camden local election results showed Labour ahead of the Greens (38.8% to 28.8% in relevant wards), yet the latter’s stronger 2024 performance in the constituency (10.4%) and protest voting patterns on issues such as Gaza policy have positioned Green leader Zack Polanski as a credible challenger if he stands. Multiple other candidates—including independents, Reform UK, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats—are expected or confirmed to contest, which fragments the vote and sustains uncertainty while nominations remain open and no polling date has been set. Trader prices reflect this early-stage fluidity, with probabilities distributed across potential Labour nominees and leading challengers because the outcome hinges on the identity of Labour’s selected candidate, Polanski’s final decision, and any subsequent campaign dynamics or national polling shifts under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$563
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).**The announcement of Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP on 1 September 2026 has triggered a by-election in the historically safe Labour seat of Holborn and St Pancras, with Labour due to select its candidate by 9 September.** Recent Camden local election results showed Labour ahead of the Greens (38.8% to 28.8% in relevant wards), yet the latter’s stronger 2024 performance in the constituency (10.4%) and protest voting patterns on issues such as Gaza policy have positioned Green leader Zack Polanski as a credible challenger if he stands. Multiple other candidates—including independents, Reform UK, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats—are expected or confirmed to contest, which fragments the vote and sustains uncertainty while nominations remain open and no polling date has been set. Trader prices reflect this early-stage fluidity, with probabilities distributed across potential Labour nominees and leading challengers because the outcome hinges on the identity of Labour’s selected candidate, Polanski’s final decision, and any subsequent campaign dynamics or national polling shifts under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$563
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 22 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Gio Spinella" sa 30%, sinusundan ng "Mehreen Malik" sa 29%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 30¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 30% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 1, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner," i-browse ang 22 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" ay "Gio Spinella" sa 30%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 30% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Mehreen Malik" sa 29%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.