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Politika·Canada

Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner
Politika·Canada

Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner

Mike Derry 77%

John Roggeveen 41.9%

Kyle Joseph 14.4%

Kyle Campbell 0

Polymarket
BAGO

Mike Derry 77%

John Roggeveen 41.9%

Kyle Joseph 14.4%

Kyle Campbell 0

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Mike Derry

Mike Derry

$265 Vol.

77%

icon for John Roggeveen

John Roggeveen

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Kyle Joseph

Kyle Joseph

$8 Vol.

14%

icon for Kyle Campbell

Kyle Campbell

$49 Vol.

43%

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry leads as the United Conservative Party nominee in the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw by-election, following the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz. The riding returned UCP support above 56 percent in 2023, and Derry secured the nomination in late June after defeating a sitting Calgary city councillor. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph round out the field, yet face structural headwinds in a district with consistent conservative voting patterns. Premier Danielle Smith has publicly backed Derry, framing the contest around resource-sector priorities. Market pricing reflects this baseline advantage while assigning lower shares to challengers, consistent with historical incumbent-party retention rates in Alberta by-elections.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$322
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 14, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry leads as the United Conservative Party nominee in the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw by-election, following the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz. The riding returned UCP support above 56 percent in 2023, and Derry secured the nomination in late June after defeating a sitting Calgary city councillor. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph round out the field, yet face structural headwinds in a district with consistent conservative voting patterns. Premier Danielle Smith has publicly backed Derry, framing the contest around resource-sector priorities. Market pricing reflects this baseline advantage while assigning lower shares to challengers, consistent with historical incumbent-party retention rates in Alberta by-elections.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$322
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 14, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mike Derry" sa 77%, sinusundan ng "Kyle Campbell" sa 43%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 77¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 77% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 21, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" ay "Mike Derry" sa 77%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 77% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Kyle Campbell" sa 43%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Calgary-Shaw Provincial By-Election Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.