Recent UK CPI data showing a July 2026 rise to 2.9% year-over-year, driven by the Ofgem energy price cap hike and persistent effects from Middle East-related energy volatility, anchor trader focus on the 3.5–3.9% bin for full-year 2026 inflation. Bank of England projections anticipate a 3.2% peak in Q4 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while consensus forecasts average near 3.1%, tempered by core measures holding around 2.6% and limited evidence of broad second-round wage-price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance amid upside risks from sustained energy costs and downside potential if labor market softening accelerates disinflation, with the next CPI release and MPC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9% 27.4%
2.0–2.4% 10.7%
2.5–2.9% 10.5%
4.5%+ 8%
$86,673 Vol.
$86,673 Vol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
2%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
11%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
2%
4.5%+
8%
3.5–3.9% 27.4%
2.0–2.4% 10.7%
2.5–2.9% 10.5%
4.5%+ 8%
$86,673 Vol.
$86,673 Vol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
2%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
11%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
2%
4.5%+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI data showing a July 2026 rise to 2.9% year-over-year, driven by the Ofgem energy price cap hike and persistent effects from Middle East-related energy volatility, anchor trader focus on the 3.5–3.9% bin for full-year 2026 inflation. Bank of England projections anticipate a 3.2% peak in Q4 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while consensus forecasts average near 3.1%, tempered by core measures holding around 2.6% and limited evidence of broad second-round wage-price pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance amid upside risks from sustained energy costs and downside potential if labor market softening accelerates disinflation, with the next CPI release and MPC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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