Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—its lowest since 2020—and core easing to 3.95%, underpins trader positioning around the 3.5–4.5% range for full-year 2026. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% while shifting its 3% target convergence to late 2027 highlights persistent services pressures and slower-than-expected progress, even as the peso’s stability and softer domestic demand limit upside risks. Analyst forecasts cluster near 3.9–4.1%, aligning with market-implied odds that balance the recent downward trajectory against core stickiness and potential one-off shocks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update3.50% to 3.99% 40.1%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
3.00% to 3.49% 16.9%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$64,480 Vol.
$64,480 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
17%
3.50% to 3.99%
36%
4.00% to 4.49%
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
5%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 40.1%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
3.00% to 3.49% 16.9%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$64,480 Vol.
$64,480 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,111 Vol.
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
$28,611 Vol.
17%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,034 Vol.
36%
4.00% to 4.49%
$12,313 Vol.
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,752 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,452 Vol.
5%
5.50%+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—its lowest since 2020—and core easing to 3.95%, underpins trader positioning around the 3.5–4.5% range for full-year 2026. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% while shifting its 3% target convergence to late 2027 highlights persistent services pressures and slower-than-expected progress, even as the peso’s stability and softer domestic demand limit upside risks. Analyst forecasts cluster near 3.9–4.1%, aligning with market-implied odds that balance the recent downward trajectory against core stickiness and potential one-off shocks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$64,480Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 8, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—its lowest since 2020—and core easing to 3.95%, underpins trader positioning around the 3.5–4.5% range for full-year 2026. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% while shifting its 3% target convergence to late 2027 highlights persistent services pressures and slower-than-expected progress, even as the peso’s stability and softer domestic demand limit upside risks. Analyst forecasts cluster near 3.9–4.1%, aligning with market-implied odds that balance the recent downward trajectory against core stickiness and potential one-off shocks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$64,480Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 8, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline inflation falling to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026—its lowest since 2020—and core easing to 3.95%, underpins trader positioning around the 3.5–4.5% range for full-year 2026. Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% while shifting its 3% target convergence to late 2027 highlights persistent services pressures and slower-than-expected progress, even as the peso’s stability and softer domestic demand limit upside risks. Analyst forecasts cluster near 3.9–4.1%, aligning with market-implied odds that balance the recent downward trajectory against core stickiness and potential one-off shocks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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