**Recent polling has positioned Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott ahead of Republican incumbent Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, driving the market’s 68% Democratic consensus.** The district, centered on Des Moines with an R+2 partisan voting index, has been competitive in recent cycles; Nunn won reelection by roughly four points in 2024. Garriott, a state senator, cleared her June 2 primary unopposed, as did Nunn. A Change Research survey released in early August showed Garriott leading Nunn after candidate profiles were provided, while a generic Democrat led a generic Republican by three points. Nunn’s job approval and favorability ratings were underwater in the same polling. Forecasting outlets have shifted the race toward Toss-up or Lean Democratic territory in recent months, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often gains ground in swing districts. Traders appear to weigh these indicators—particularly the latest head-to-head polling—more heavily than the modest Republican structural edge, though the narrow historical margins leave room for movement through the fall campaign.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
69%
Republican Party
32%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,266 Vol.
69%
Republican Party
$4,114 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Recent polling has positioned Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott ahead of Republican incumbent Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, driving the market’s 68% Democratic consensus.**
The district, centered on Des Moines with an R+2 partisan voting index, has been competitive in recent cycles; Nunn won reelection by roughly four points in 2024. Garriott, a state senator, cleared her June 2 primary unopposed, as did Nunn. A Change Research survey released in early August showed Garriott leading Nunn after candidate profiles were provided, while a generic Democrat led a generic Republican by three points. Nunn’s job approval and favorability ratings were underwater in the same polling.
Forecasting outlets have shifted the race toward Toss-up or Lean Democratic territory in recent months, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often gains ground in swing districts. Traders appear to weigh these indicators—particularly the latest head-to-head polling—more heavily than the modest Republican structural edge, though the narrow historical margins leave room for movement through the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$7,380Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Recent polling has positioned Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott ahead of Republican incumbent Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, driving the market’s 68% Democratic consensus.**
The district, centered on Des Moines with an R+2 partisan voting index, has been competitive in recent cycles; Nunn won reelection by roughly four points in 2024. Garriott, a state senator, cleared her June 2 primary unopposed, as did Nunn. A Change Research survey released in early August showed Garriott leading Nunn after candidate profiles were provided, while a generic Democrat led a generic Republican by three points. Nunn’s job approval and favorability ratings were underwater in the same polling.
Forecasting outlets have shifted the race toward Toss-up or Lean Democratic territory in recent months, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often gains ground in swing districts. Traders appear to weigh these indicators—particularly the latest head-to-head polling—more heavily than the modest Republican structural edge, though the narrow historical margins leave room for movement through the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,380Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent polling has positioned Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott ahead of Republican incumbent Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, driving the market’s 68% Democratic consensus.** The district, centered on Des Moines with an R+2 partisan voting index, has been competitive in recent cycles; Nunn won reelection by roughly four points in 2024. Garriott, a state senator, cleared her June 2 primary unopposed, as did Nunn. A Change Research survey released in early August showed Garriott leading Nunn after candidate profiles were provided, while a generic Democrat led a generic Republican by three points. Nunn’s job approval and favorability ratings were underwater in the same polling. Forecasting outlets have shifted the race toward Toss-up or Lean Democratic territory in recent months, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often gains ground in swing districts. Traders appear to weigh these indicators—particularly the latest head-to-head polling—more heavily than the modest Republican structural edge, though the narrow historical margins leave room for movement through the fall campaign.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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