Ongoing Iranian efforts to control shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iran-backed Houthi strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sustain trader expectations around a near-term success. Early August incidents, including projectile strikes on bulk carriers and a deadly double-tap attack on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed six, mark the latest escalation in a pattern of maritime targeting that resumed after July U.S. responses. Stalled U.S.-Iran talks over blockade terms and safe-passage conditions have kept tensions elevated, with traffic volumes remaining suppressed and fresh warnings issued by Iranian forces. These developments, occurring within days of the August 24 resolution window, underpin the 55.5% implied probability for affirmative resolution while highlighting the narrow margin tied to whether further verified hits occur before the cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
0% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 24, 2026
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BAGO
BAGO
Aug 24, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Ongoing Iranian efforts to control shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iran-backed Houthi strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sustain trader expectations around a near-term success. Early August incidents, including projectile strikes on bulk carriers and a deadly double-tap attack on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed six, mark the latest escalation in a pattern of maritime targeting that resumed after July U.S. responses. Stalled U.S.-Iran talks over blockade terms and safe-passage conditions have kept tensions elevated, with traffic volumes remaining suppressed and fresh warnings issued by Iranian forces. These developments, occurring within days of the August 24 resolution window, underpin the 55.5% implied probability for affirmative resolution while highlighting the narrow margin tied to whether further verified hits occur before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 13, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$97Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 13, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Ongoing Iranian efforts to control shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iran-backed Houthi strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sustain trader expectations around a near-term success. Early August incidents, including projectile strikes on bulk carriers and a deadly double-tap attack on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed six, mark the latest escalation in a pattern of maritime targeting that resumed after July U.S. responses. Stalled U.S.-Iran talks over blockade terms and safe-passage conditions have kept tensions elevated, with traffic volumes remaining suppressed and fresh warnings issued by Iranian forces. These developments, occurring within days of the August 24 resolution window, underpin the 55.5% implied probability for affirmative resolution while highlighting the narrow margin tied to whether further verified hits occur before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$97Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 24, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 13, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Iranian efforts to control shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iran-backed Houthi strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sustain trader expectations around a near-term success. Early August incidents, including projectile strikes on bulk carriers and a deadly double-tap attack on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed six, mark the latest escalation in a pattern of maritime targeting that resumed after July U.S. responses. Stalled U.S.-Iran talks over blockade terms and safe-passage conditions have kept tensions elevated, with traffic volumes remaining suppressed and fresh warnings issued by Iranian forces. These developments, occurring within days of the August 24 resolution window, underpin the 55.5% implied probability for affirmative resolution while highlighting the narrow margin tied to whether further verified hits occur before the cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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