Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman over new shipping lanes and management of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, have shaped recent trader sentiment. Iranian forces have issued warnings, attempted route enforcement through territorial waters, and conducted strikes on noncompliant vessels in prior months, including incidents in July that prompted U.S. retaliation. However, verifiable kinetic attacks on commercial shipping have remained limited in the most recent days, aligning with the 0% implied probability for affirmative resolutions on specific dates. Renewed negotiations, potential interim agreements on fees or routing, and U.S. enforcement actions continue to influence assessments of escalation risks in the waterway.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$153,172 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
8%
August 16
18%
August 17
20%
August 18
14%
August 19
16%
August 20
11%
August 21
17%
August 22
17%
August 23
17%
August 24
14%
August 25
14%
August 26
13%
August 27
14%
August 28
10%
August 29
11%
August 30
13%
August 31
8%
$153,172 Vol.
August 15
$6,857 Vol.
8%
August 16
$2,688 Vol.
18%
August 17
$675 Vol.
20%
August 18
$507 Vol.
14%
August 19
$3,786 Vol.
16%
August 20
$1,097 Vol.
11%
August 21
$1,211 Vol.
17%
August 22
$524 Vol.
17%
August 23
$2,950 Vol.
17%
August 24
$6,258 Vol.
14%
August 25
$116 Vol.
14%
August 26
$768 Vol.
13%
August 27
$408 Vol.
14%
August 28
$762 Vol.
10%
August 29
$1,418 Vol.
11%
August 30
$240 Vol.
13%
August 31
$1,038 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman over new shipping lanes and management of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, have shaped recent trader sentiment. Iranian forces have issued warnings, attempted route enforcement through territorial waters, and conducted strikes on noncompliant vessels in prior months, including incidents in July that prompted U.S. retaliation. However, verifiable kinetic attacks on commercial shipping have remained limited in the most recent days, aligning with the 0% implied probability for affirmative resolutions on specific dates. Renewed negotiations, potential interim agreements on fees or routing, and U.S. enforcement actions continue to influence assessments of escalation risks in the waterway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$153,172Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman over new shipping lanes and management of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, have shaped recent trader sentiment. Iranian forces have issued warnings, attempted route enforcement through territorial waters, and conducted strikes on noncompliant vessels in prior months, including incidents in July that prompted U.S. retaliation. However, verifiable kinetic attacks on commercial shipping have remained limited in the most recent days, aligning with the 0% implied probability for affirmative resolutions on specific dates. Renewed negotiations, potential interim agreements on fees or routing, and U.S. enforcement actions continue to influence assessments of escalation risks in the waterway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$153,172Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman over new shipping lanes and management of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, have shaped recent trader sentiment. Iranian forces have issued warnings, attempted route enforcement through territorial waters, and conducted strikes on noncompliant vessels in prior months, including incidents in July that prompted U.S. retaliation. However, verifiable kinetic attacks on commercial shipping have remained limited in the most recent days, aligning with the 0% implied probability for affirmative resolutions on specific dates. Renewed negotiations, potential interim agreements on fees or routing, and U.S. enforcement actions continue to influence assessments of escalation risks in the waterway.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong