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icon for Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?
Mundo·Israel

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?

icon for Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?
Mundo·Israel

Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?

<4.5% 34%

6.5-7.5% 33%

4.5-5.5% 26%

7.5%+ 25%

Polymarket
BAGO

<4.5% 34%

6.5-7.5% 33%

4.5-5.5% 26%

7.5%+ 25%

Polymarket
BAGO

<4.5%

$13 Vol.

34%

4.5-5.5%

$13 Vol.

26%

5.5-6.5%

$78 Vol.

38%

6.5-7.5%

$114 Vol.

28%

7.5%+

$231 Vol.

25%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages place Otzma Yehudit at 6–8 Knesset seats in surveys from late August through early September 2026, implying a national vote share clustered around 5–7 percent. This range aligns with the market’s leading 6.5–7.5 percent bucket. Finalization of party lists, including the addition of former Likud MK Tally Gotliv to the Otzma slate, has produced only marginal movement in the party’s standing. Competition for right-wing and religious voters with Likud and Religious Zionism, combined with surplus-vote agreements among other blocs, continues to limit clearer separation in the data. With the October 27 election six weeks away, modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist constituencies or late campaign developments could still adjust the final percentage within the current tight probability distribution.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$449
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 27, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages place Otzma Yehudit at 6–8 Knesset seats in surveys from late August through early September 2026, implying a national vote share clustered around 5–7 percent. This range aligns with the market’s leading 6.5–7.5 percent bucket. Finalization of party lists, including the addition of former Likud MK Tally Gotliv to the Otzma slate, has produced only marginal movement in the party’s standing. Competition for right-wing and religious voters with Likud and Religious Zionism, combined with surplus-vote agreements among other blocs, continues to limit clearer separation in the data. With the October 27 election six weeks away, modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist constituencies or late campaign developments could still adjust the final percentage within the current tight probability distribution.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$449
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 27, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Kaugnay

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Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

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icon for Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

23%
icon for Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

31%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "5.5-6.5%" sa 38%, sinusundan ng "<4.5%" sa 34%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 38¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 38% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 8, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?" ay "5.5-6.5%" sa 38%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 38% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "<4.5%" sa 34%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit vote share?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.