**Persistent extreme heat and limited overnight cooling under clear skies and light southerly flow are keeping Dallas minimum temperatures elevated, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service centering the Aug 21 low near 82–83°F.** Model consensus and recent observations show daytime highs exceeding 106°F with heat indices above 110°F, followed by only modest radiational cooling overnight as dew points remain in the mid-60s and winds stay light. This setup produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 82–87°F bins, reflecting uncertainty over the precise minimum driven by urban heat island effects, exact timing of the daily low, and minor differences between reporting stations. Historical August lows average near 77°F, but the current heat wave has consistently pushed overnight readings 5–8°F above normal with no frontal passage or precipitation expected to alter the pattern before resolution.