Forecast models from NOAA and the National Weather Service indicate Miami's August 26 overnight low will hinge on the strength of the typical subtropical ridge and Atlantic sea-breeze circulation, which normally keep minimum temperatures in the upper 70s. Ensemble guidance shows a tight spread centered near 78–81 °F, with small differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed determining whether the reading falls in the 78–79 °F or 80–81 °F bin that together command over 70 % of market-implied probability. Any late-day convective cooling or slightly stronger onshore flow could push the low into the 76–77 °F range, while a suppressed marine layer would favor the low-80s outcome; traders are weighting these narrow meteorological variables against historical August climatology that places the median low near 79 °F.