Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate overnight lows in New York City on August 14 centered in the low to mid-70s, with trader sentiment clustered around 72–75°F reflecting modest spread among ensemble forecasts. Key differentiating factors include the strength of southerly flow advecting higher dew points, extent of cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and urban heat island effects at the Central Park observation site, which typically adds 1–3°F relative to surrounding areas. Historical August climatology shows average minimums near 70°F, but the current pattern—consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s above-normal temperature outlook—supports limited cooling overnight. Model differences in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any residual showers will likely determine whether the minimum settles near 70–71°F or edges higher.