**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and other models points to an overnight low of 65–66°F for New York City on August 29, 2026, under clear to mostly clear skies with light north-to-southwest winds.** This produces the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 64–65°F and 66–67°F bins. Key scientific factors include radiational cooling under high pressure, moderated by the urban heat island effect in Manhattan and surrounding areas, which typically keeps minimums 2–4°F above rural surroundings. Recent climatological context shows late-August NYC overnight lows averaging near 68°F, with the current pattern featuring slightly cooler northerly flow and dew points in the mid-50s°F that support efficient cooling without widespread fog or stratus. Model agreement is strong on the overall regime, but small differences in exact wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, or station-specific readings (Central Park vs. airports) create the near-even split between the two leading outcomes. The lower-probability tails reflect residual uncertainty from any unexpected cloud cover or wind shifts that could alter the minimum by a few degrees. No major weather systems are expected to disrupt this pattern before resolution.