Persistent heavy rain and northerly flow over Tokyo on September 20 have compressed the diurnal temperature range, with official forecasts and model consensus from agencies like JMA pointing to overnight lows near 22–23°C amid high humidity near 94% and minimal radiational cooling. This setup favors the market’s leading outcomes at 22°C (53% implied probability) and 23°C (38%), as cloud cover and precipitation limit both daytime heating and nighttime drops below recent baselines of 20–22°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current observations against potential minor revisions in final JMA station readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 21°C or below remain sidelined by the lack of clear-air cooling signals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
22°C 63%
21°C 30%
23°C 25%
20°C 6%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
6%
21°C
27%
22°C
55%
23°C
25%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
22°C 63%
21°C 30%
23°C 25%
20°C 6%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$752 Vol.
1%
19°C
$587 Vol.
1%
20°C
$896 Vol.
6%
21°C
$1,759 Vol.
27%
22°C
$1,889 Vol.
55%
23°C
$1,073 Vol.
25%
24°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rain and northerly flow over Tokyo on September 20 have compressed the diurnal temperature range, with official forecasts and model consensus from agencies like JMA pointing to overnight lows near 22–23°C amid high humidity near 94% and minimal radiational cooling. This setup favors the market’s leading outcomes at 22°C (53% implied probability) and 23°C (38%), as cloud cover and precipitation limit both daytime heating and nighttime drops below recent baselines of 20–22°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current observations against potential minor revisions in final JMA station readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 21°C or below remain sidelined by the lack of clear-air cooling signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,294Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rain and northerly flow over Tokyo on September 20 have compressed the diurnal temperature range, with official forecasts and model consensus from agencies like JMA pointing to overnight lows near 22–23°C amid high humidity near 94% and minimal radiational cooling. This setup favors the market’s leading outcomes at 22°C (53% implied probability) and 23°C (38%), as cloud cover and precipitation limit both daytime heating and nighttime drops below recent baselines of 20–22°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current observations against potential minor revisions in final JMA station readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 21°C or below remain sidelined by the lack of clear-air cooling signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,294Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heavy rain and northerly flow over Tokyo on September 20 have compressed the diurnal temperature range, with official forecasts and model consensus from agencies like JMA pointing to overnight lows near 22–23°C amid high humidity near 94% and minimal radiational cooling. This setup favors the market’s leading outcomes at 22°C (53% implied probability) and 23°C (38%), as cloud cover and precipitation limit both daytime heating and nighttime drops below recent baselines of 20–22°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in current observations against potential minor revisions in final JMA station readings, while lower-probability outcomes like 21°C or below remain sidelined by the lack of clear-air cooling signals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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