Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show increased potential for clear skies and a modest influx of cooler maritime air over central Europe, favoring enhanced radiative cooling and minimum temperatures in Warsaw dipping toward 8–12°C on August 23. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 43 percent implied probability, as traders price in model spread and the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal norms of 12–15°C. Recent runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier guidance, though consensus still centers around 10–13°C. The next high-resolution updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
8°C or below 43%
12°C 20%
11°C 19%
13°C 19%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
43%
9°C
5%
10°C
14%
11°C
19%
12°C
20%
13°C
19%
14°C
19%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
1%
8°C or below 43%
12°C 20%
11°C 19%
13°C 19%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
43%
9°C
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
14%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$32 Vol.
14%
17°C
$5 Vol.
8%
18°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show increased potential for clear skies and a modest influx of cooler maritime air over central Europe, favoring enhanced radiative cooling and minimum temperatures in Warsaw dipping toward 8–12°C on August 23. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 43 percent implied probability, as traders price in model spread and the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal norms of 12–15°C. Recent runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier guidance, though consensus still centers around 10–13°C. The next high-resolution updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$64Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 23, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show increased potential for clear skies and a modest influx of cooler maritime air over central Europe, favoring enhanced radiative cooling and minimum temperatures in Warsaw dipping toward 8–12°C on August 23. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 43 percent implied probability, as traders price in model spread and the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal norms of 12–15°C. Recent runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier guidance, though consensus still centers around 10–13°C. The next high-resolution updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$64Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 23, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show increased potential for clear skies and a modest influx of cooler maritime air over central Europe, favoring enhanced radiative cooling and minimum temperatures in Warsaw dipping toward 8–12°C on August 23. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 43 percent implied probability, as traders price in model spread and the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal norms of 12–15°C. Recent runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier guidance, though consensus still centers around 10–13°C. The next high-resolution updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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