The 92% market-implied probability of no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) by June 30 reflects the extremely short 27-day window and USGS historical data showing roughly one such event per year worldwide on average. No magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes have occurred in 2026 through early June, with the strongest event a 7.5 near Tonga in March and only a handful of 7.0–7.9 quakes recorded globally. Seismic activity remains within normal variability, and short-term forecasting offers no reliable precursors to elevate near-term risk. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline rarity, though an unforeseen megathrust rupture on a major subduction zone could still occur given the inherent unpredictability of fault dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$69,331 Vol.
$69,331 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 92% market-implied probability of no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) by June 30 reflects the extremely short 27-day window and USGS historical data showing roughly one such event per year worldwide on average. No magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes have occurred in 2026 through early June, with the strongest event a 7.5 near Tonga in March and only a handful of 7.0–7.9 quakes recorded globally. Seismic activity remains within normal variability, and short-term forecasting offers no reliable precursors to elevate near-term risk. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline rarity, though an unforeseen megathrust rupture on a major subduction zone could still occur given the inherent unpredictability of fault dynamics.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$69,331Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The 92% market-implied probability of no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) by June 30 reflects the extremely short 27-day window and USGS historical data showing roughly one such event per year worldwide on average. No magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes have occurred in 2026 through early June, with the strongest event a 7.5 near Tonga in March and only a handful of 7.0–7.9 quakes recorded globally. Seismic activity remains within normal variability, and short-term forecasting offers no reliable precursors to elevate near-term risk. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline rarity, though an unforeseen megathrust rupture on a major subduction zone could still occur given the inherent unpredictability of fault dynamics.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$69,331Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 92% market-implied probability of no megaquake (magnitude 8.0 or greater) by June 30 reflects the extremely short 27-day window and USGS historical data showing roughly one such event per year worldwide on average. No magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes have occurred in 2026 through early June, with the strongest event a 7.5 near Tonga in March and only a handful of 7.0–7.9 quakes recorded globally. Seismic activity remains within normal variability, and short-term forecasting offers no reliable precursors to elevate near-term risk. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline rarity, though an unforeseen megathrust rupture on a major subduction zone could still occur given the inherent unpredictability of fault dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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