Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability for a megaquake—M8.0+ earthquake per USGS criteria—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes, which occur roughly once per year worldwide amid otherwise normal 2026 seismic activity. Through mid-April, USGS data logs no M8+ events, with recent peaks at M7.5 near Tonga (March 24) and M7.4 off Indonesia (April 1), both falling short of the intensity threshold as energy scales exponentially. No unusual precursors appear on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where long-term M9+ odds remain low (10-15% over 50 years). Continuous USGS monitoring could shift odds with new seismic data releases.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$48,930 Vol.
$48,930 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$48,930 Vol.
$48,930 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability for a megaquake—M8.0+ earthquake per USGS criteria—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes, which occur roughly once per year worldwide amid otherwise normal 2026 seismic activity. Through mid-April, USGS data logs no M8+ events, with recent peaks at M7.5 near Tonga (March 24) and M7.4 off Indonesia (April 1), both falling short of the intensity threshold as energy scales exponentially. No unusual precursors appear on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where long-term M9+ odds remain low (10-15% over 50 years). Continuous USGS monitoring could shift odds with new seismic data releases.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$48,930Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability for a megaquake—M8.0+ earthquake per USGS criteria—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes, which occur roughly once per year worldwide amid otherwise normal 2026 seismic activity. Through mid-April, USGS data logs no M8+ events, with recent peaks at M7.5 near Tonga (March 24) and M7.4 off Indonesia (April 1), both falling short of the intensity threshold as energy scales exponentially. No unusual precursors appear on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where long-term M9+ odds remain low (10-15% over 50 years). Continuous USGS monitoring could shift odds with new seismic data releases.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$48,930Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability for a megaquake—M8.0+ earthquake per USGS criteria—by June 30, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes, which occur roughly once per year worldwide amid otherwise normal 2026 seismic activity. Through mid-April, USGS data logs no M8+ events, with recent peaks at M7.5 near Tonga (March 24) and M7.4 off Indonesia (April 1), both falling short of the intensity threshold as energy scales exponentially. No unusual precursors appear on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough, where long-term M9+ odds remain low (10-15% over 50 years). Continuous USGS monitoring could shift odds with new seismic data releases.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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