Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 midterms, with the party’s nominee favored by a wide margin in trader consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder secured the seat in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition from John Fraser, while Democratic primary contenders including Bethany Mann and Tommy Holstein compete in a district consistently rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan lean, established voting patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure explain the current 90.5% implied probability for a Republican winner. Late developments that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Republican nominee or a substantial national shift in voter sentiment, though both remain low-probability scenarios given the district’s structural advantages.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
10%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$67 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$5,653 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 midterms, with the party’s nominee favored by a wide margin in trader consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder secured the seat in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition from John Fraser, while Democratic primary contenders including Bethany Mann and Tommy Holstein compete in a district consistently rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan lean, established voting patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure explain the current 90.5% implied probability for a Republican winner. Late developments that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Republican nominee or a substantial national shift in voter sentiment, though both remain low-probability scenarios given the district’s structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$5,720Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 midterms, with the party’s nominee favored by a wide margin in trader consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder secured the seat in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition from John Fraser, while Democratic primary contenders including Bethany Mann and Tommy Holstein compete in a district consistently rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan lean, established voting patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure explain the current 90.5% implied probability for a Republican winner. Late developments that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Republican nominee or a substantial national shift in voter sentiment, though both remain low-probability scenarios given the district’s structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,720Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 midterms, with the party’s nominee favored by a wide margin in trader consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder secured the seat in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition from John Fraser, while Democratic primary contenders including Bethany Mann and Tommy Holstein compete in a district consistently rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan lean, established voting patterns, and limited Democratic infrastructure explain the current 90.5% implied probability for a Republican winner. Late developments that could alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Republican nominee or a substantial national shift in voter sentiment, though both remain low-probability scenarios given the district’s structural advantages.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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