Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by early April reports of an internal rift: CEO Sam Altman targets Q4 listing post-$852 billion valuation from a $122 billion funding round, while CFO Sarah Friar flags unreadiness amid $600 billion five-year compute spend, revenue slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029. Recent $20 billion Cerebras chip deal signals aggressive AI infrastructure scaling but amplifies cash burn concerns, echoed in Stargate data center pullouts and executive exits like science chief Kevin Weil. Valuation skepticism—trading at 35x projected 2026 sales versus Nvidia's lower multiple—caps trillion-dollar outcomes below 7%, with regulatory scrutiny and competitive pressures from Anthropic adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
Walang IPO bago o sa Disyembre 31, 2026 65%
$1.25T–$1.5T 6.9%
1.5T+ 6.5%
750B–1T 5.7%
$1,581,474 Vol.
$1,581,474 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
5%
500–750B
4%
750B–1T
6%
$1T–$1.25T
4%
$1.25T–$1.5T
7%
1.5T+
7%
Walang IPO bago o sa Disyembre 31, 2026
65%
Walang IPO bago o sa Disyembre 31, 2026 65%
$1.25T–$1.5T 6.9%
1.5T+ 6.5%
750B–1T 5.7%
$1,581,474 Vol.
$1,581,474 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$259,841 Vol.
5%
500–750B
$141,603 Vol.
4%
750B–1T
$135,258 Vol.
6%
$1T–$1.25T
$175,516 Vol.
4%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$489,812 Vol.
7%
1.5T+
$94,898 Vol.
7%
Walang IPO bago o sa Disyembre 31, 2026
$284,552 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by early April reports of an internal rift: CEO Sam Altman targets Q4 listing post-$852 billion valuation from a $122 billion funding round, while CFO Sarah Friar flags unreadiness amid $600 billion five-year compute spend, revenue slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029. Recent $20 billion Cerebras chip deal signals aggressive AI infrastructure scaling but amplifies cash burn concerns, echoed in Stargate data center pullouts and executive exits like science chief Kevin Weil. Valuation skepticism—trading at 35x projected 2026 sales versus Nvidia's lower multiple—caps trillion-dollar outcomes below 7%, with regulatory scrutiny and competitive pressures from Anthropic adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,581,474Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by early April reports of an internal rift: CEO Sam Altman targets Q4 listing post-$852 billion valuation from a $122 billion funding round, while CFO Sarah Friar flags unreadiness amid $600 billion five-year compute spend, revenue slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029. Recent $20 billion Cerebras chip deal signals aggressive AI infrastructure scaling but amplifies cash burn concerns, echoed in Stargate data center pullouts and executive exits like science chief Kevin Weil. Valuation skepticism—trading at 35x projected 2026 sales versus Nvidia's lower multiple—caps trillion-dollar outcomes below 7%, with regulatory scrutiny and competitive pressures from Anthropic adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,581,474Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by early April reports of an internal rift: CEO Sam Altman targets Q4 listing post-$852 billion valuation from a $122 billion funding round, while CFO Sarah Friar flags unreadiness amid $600 billion five-year compute spend, revenue slowdowns, and profitability delayed until 2029. Recent $20 billion Cerebras chip deal signals aggressive AI infrastructure scaling but amplifies cash burn concerns, echoed in Stargate data center pullouts and executive exits like science chief Kevin Weil. Valuation skepticism—trading at 35x projected 2026 sales versus Nvidia's lower multiple—caps trillion-dollar outcomes below 7%, with regulatory scrutiny and competitive pressures from Anthropic adding uncertainty ahead of potential S-1 filing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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