Traders assign a 96% implied probability against Michigan voters approving the automatic constitutional convention question on the November 2026 ballot because the measure has failed by wide margins in every prior cycle since 1963, including 67% opposition in 2010. A bipartisan coalition backed by labor unions, business groups, and former officials from both parties has mobilized against Proposal 1, citing risks that elected delegates could pursue sweeping revisions open to special-interest influence rather than targeted changes. Voters can already pursue narrower constitutional amendments through legislative referral or citizen initiative. Recent polling shows plurality support for a convention but leaves substantial undecided voters, consistent with historical patterns where organized opposition consolidates a decisive “no” majority. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited to unusually high turnout shifts or unforeseen campaign events in the final weeks.