Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has been followed by prolonged public absence and limited official appearances, fueling questions about his health, location, and effective control amid IRGC influence and ongoing regional tensions. Reports from July 2026 highlight his non-attendance at Ali Khamenei’s funeral and speculation over possible injury or departure, including unconfirmed claims he may have traveled abroad, potentially to Russia, as Iran navigates war-related disruptions and internal power consolidation. These factors, alongside the regime’s preference for continuity through security networks rather than traditional clerical authority, shape trader assessments of whether he will exit Iran within any specified timeframe. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could alter visibility or prompt relocation decisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$99,789 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
2%
$99,789 Vol.
August 31
$57,887 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has been followed by prolonged public absence and limited official appearances, fueling questions about his health, location, and effective control amid IRGC influence and ongoing regional tensions. Reports from July 2026 highlight his non-attendance at Ali Khamenei’s funeral and speculation over possible injury or departure, including unconfirmed claims he may have traveled abroad, potentially to Russia, as Iran navigates war-related disruptions and internal power consolidation. These factors, alongside the regime’s preference for continuity through security networks rather than traditional clerical authority, shape trader assessments of whether he will exit Iran within any specified timeframe. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could alter visibility or prompt relocation decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$99,789Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has been followed by prolonged public absence and limited official appearances, fueling questions about his health, location, and effective control amid IRGC influence and ongoing regional tensions. Reports from July 2026 highlight his non-attendance at Ali Khamenei’s funeral and speculation over possible injury or departure, including unconfirmed claims he may have traveled abroad, potentially to Russia, as Iran navigates war-related disruptions and internal power consolidation. These factors, alongside the regime’s preference for continuity through security networks rather than traditional clerical authority, shape trader assessments of whether he will exit Iran within any specified timeframe. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could alter visibility or prompt relocation decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$99,789Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Supreme Leader in March 2026, following his father’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has been followed by prolonged public absence and limited official appearances, fueling questions about his health, location, and effective control amid IRGC influence and ongoing regional tensions. Reports from July 2026 highlight his non-attendance at Ali Khamenei’s funeral and speculation over possible injury or departure, including unconfirmed claims he may have traveled abroad, potentially to Russia, as Iran navigates war-related disruptions and internal power consolidation. These factors, alongside the regime’s preference for continuity through security networks rather than traditional clerical authority, shape trader assessments of whether he will exit Iran within any specified timeframe. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could alter visibility or prompt relocation decisions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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