Recent US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have centered on air and naval power, missile targeting, and degradation of Iranian capabilities rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control. Ongoing tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping, intermittent strikes into July, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding have kept engagement at a level short of invasion, with US actions emphasizing precision operations and economic pressure. Diplomatic channels, including mediated technical talks on sanctions relief and navigation protocols, continue alongside military activity, reflecting trader assessments of logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for containment over occupation. These patterns sustain the 79.5% implied probability that no US offensive to seize Iranian territory occurs by December 31, 2026.