Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.3% implied probability for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of any official announcements, referendum plans, or secessionist momentum in recent weeks amid ongoing fiscal negotiations with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, customs implementation, and trade embargoes imposed since January. KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's team, prioritize resolving these economic disputes and Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that prompted Iraqi forces to retake disputed territories like Kirkuk. Strong opposition from the Iraqi federal government, Turkey, and Iran further entrenches constitutional ties, with realistic shifts requiring a sudden Baghdad collapse or major security crisis—scenarios traders deem negligible in the final two weeks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiKBY, 30 Nisan'a kadar Irak'tan bağımsızlığını ilan mı edecek?
KBY, 30 Nisan'a kadar Irak'tan bağımsızlığını ilan mı edecek?
Evet
$43,413 Hac.
$43,413 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Evet
$43,413 Hac.
$43,413 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.3% implied probability for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of any official announcements, referendum plans, or secessionist momentum in recent weeks amid ongoing fiscal negotiations with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, customs implementation, and trade embargoes imposed since January. KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's team, prioritize resolving these economic disputes and Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that prompted Iraqi forces to retake disputed territories like Kirkuk. Strong opposition from the Iraqi federal government, Turkey, and Iran further entrenches constitutional ties, with realistic shifts requiring a sudden Baghdad collapse or major security crisis—scenarios traders deem negligible in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Hacim
$43,413Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.3% implied probability for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of any official announcements, referendum plans, or secessionist momentum in recent weeks amid ongoing fiscal negotiations with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, customs implementation, and trade embargoes imposed since January. KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's team, prioritize resolving these economic disputes and Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that prompted Iraqi forces to retake disputed territories like Kirkuk. Strong opposition from the Iraqi federal government, Turkey, and Iran further entrenches constitutional ties, with realistic shifts requiring a sudden Baghdad collapse or major security crisis—scenarios traders deem negligible in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$43,413Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.3% implied probability for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of any official announcements, referendum plans, or secessionist momentum in recent weeks amid ongoing fiscal negotiations with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing, customs implementation, and trade embargoes imposed since January. KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's team, prioritize resolving these economic disputes and Peshmerga unification under a US-led coalition deadline in September, echoing the failed 2017 independence referendum that prompted Iraqi forces to retake disputed territories like Kirkuk. Strong opposition from the Iraqi federal government, Turkey, and Iran further entrenches constitutional ties, with realistic shifts requiring a sudden Baghdad collapse or major security crisis—scenarios traders deem negligible in the final two weeks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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