With only 60mm of rainfall accumulated at the Hong Kong Observatory through April 13—driven mainly by a 45.1mm downpour on April 5—traders favor sub-130mm totals at 32.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 130-140mm at 27%, reflecting a dry start below historical April averages near 150mm. This tight race midway through the month stems from contrasting signals: recent persistent dry easterlies versus Hong Kong Observatory seasonal forecasts of normal to above-normal precipitation for April-June amid rainy season onset. Separation could arise from heavy showers or trough-induced rain bands in the remaining two weeks pushing toward 150mm+, or continued suppression by high-pressure systems locking in lower outcomes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiPrecipitation in Hong Kong in April?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
<130mm 34%
130-140mm 27%
140-150mm 16%
150-160mm 16%
$28,497 Hac.
$28,497 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
<130mm
34%
130-140mm
27%
140-150mm
22%
150-160mm
16%
160-170mm
4%
190-200mm
2%
180-190
1%
190mm+
9%
<130mm 34%
130-140mm 27%
140-150mm 16%
150-160mm 16%
$28,497 Hac.
$28,497 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
<130mm
$13,157 Hac.
34%
130-140mm
$5,191 Hac.
27%
140-150mm
$5,687 Hac.
22%
150-160mm
$3,218 Hac.
16%
160-170mm
$247 Hac.
4%
190-200mm
$199 Hac.
2%
180-190
$211 Hac.
1%
190mm+
$658 Hac.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.With only 60mm of rainfall accumulated at the Hong Kong Observatory through April 13—driven mainly by a 45.1mm downpour on April 5—traders favor sub-130mm totals at 32.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 130-140mm at 27%, reflecting a dry start below historical April averages near 150mm. This tight race midway through the month stems from contrasting signals: recent persistent dry easterlies versus Hong Kong Observatory seasonal forecasts of normal to above-normal precipitation for April-June amid rainy season onset. Separation could arise from heavy showers or trough-induced rain bands in the remaining two weeks pushing toward 150mm+, or continued suppression by high-pressure systems locking in lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Hacim
$28,497Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.With only 60mm of rainfall accumulated at the Hong Kong Observatory through April 13—driven mainly by a 45.1mm downpour on April 5—traders favor sub-130mm totals at 32.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 130-140mm at 27%, reflecting a dry start below historical April averages near 150mm. This tight race midway through the month stems from contrasting signals: recent persistent dry easterlies versus Hong Kong Observatory seasonal forecasts of normal to above-normal precipitation for April-June amid rainy season onset. Separation could arise from heavy showers or trough-induced rain bands in the remaining two weeks pushing toward 150mm+, or continued suppression by high-pressure systems locking in lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$28,497Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With only 60mm of rainfall accumulated at the Hong Kong Observatory through April 13—driven mainly by a 45.1mm downpour on April 5—traders favor sub-130mm totals at 32.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 130-140mm at 27%, reflecting a dry start below historical April averages near 150mm. This tight race midway through the month stems from contrasting signals: recent persistent dry easterlies versus Hong Kong Observatory seasonal forecasts of normal to above-normal precipitation for April-June amid rainy season onset. Separation could arise from heavy showers or trough-induced rain bands in the remaining two weeks pushing toward 150mm+, or continued suppression by high-pressure systems locking in lower outcomes.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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