Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, costing the FDIC $19.7 million with minimal systemic ripple. Stabilizing commercial real estate loan delinquencies near 1.53% as of March, per S&P Global data, alongside Federal Reserve's February 2026 stress test scenarios affirming large banks' capital buffers amid a baseline economic outlook, have eased prior concerns. Regional banks report steady deposit inflows and earnings recovery, though lingering CRE maturities warrant monitoring ahead of Q1 earnings releases and April nonfarm payrolls data.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$14,600 Hac.
$14,600 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
$14,600 Hac.
$14,600 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, costing the FDIC $19.7 million with minimal systemic ripple. Stabilizing commercial real estate loan delinquencies near 1.53% as of March, per S&P Global data, alongside Federal Reserve's February 2026 stress test scenarios affirming large banks' capital buffers amid a baseline economic outlook, have eased prior concerns. Regional banks report steady deposit inflows and earnings recovery, though lingering CRE maturities warrant monitoring ahead of Q1 earnings releases and April nonfarm payrolls data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Hacim
$14,600Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, costing the FDIC $19.7 million with minimal systemic ripple. Stabilizing commercial real estate loan delinquencies near 1.53% as of March, per S&P Global data, alongside Federal Reserve's February 2026 stress test scenarios affirming large banks' capital buffers amid a baseline economic outlook, have eased prior concerns. Regional banks report steady deposit inflows and earnings recovery, though lingering CRE maturities warrant monitoring ahead of Q1 earnings releases and April nonfarm payrolls data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Hacim
$14,600Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by sector resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, costing the FDIC $19.7 million with minimal systemic ripple. Stabilizing commercial real estate loan delinquencies near 1.53% as of March, per S&P Global data, alongside Federal Reserve's February 2026 stress test scenarios affirming large banks' capital buffers amid a baseline economic outlook, have eased prior concerns. Regional banks report steady deposit inflows and earnings recovery, though lingering CRE maturities warrant monitoring ahead of Q1 earnings releases and April nonfarm payrolls data.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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