Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's stability following the single closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in late January—the only FDIC-reported failure in 2026 to date. Robust Q1 net interest income growth, booming trading revenues, and benign credit quality in recent bank previews have bolstered confidence, with major institutions like U.S. Bancorp set to report earnings today amid positive analyst estimates for EPS expansion. Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscore capital resilience amid hypothetical recessions. Realistic challenges include abrupt commercial real estate losses or liquidity strains from geopolitical tensions, though no acute signals have emerged in the past 30 days.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$11,342 Hac.
$11,342 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
$11,342 Hac.
$11,342 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's stability following the single closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in late January—the only FDIC-reported failure in 2026 to date. Robust Q1 net interest income growth, booming trading revenues, and benign credit quality in recent bank previews have bolstered confidence, with major institutions like U.S. Bancorp set to report earnings today amid positive analyst estimates for EPS expansion. Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscore capital resilience amid hypothetical recessions. Realistic challenges include abrupt commercial real estate losses or liquidity strains from geopolitical tensions, though no acute signals have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Hacim
$11,342Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's stability following the single closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in late January—the only FDIC-reported failure in 2026 to date. Robust Q1 net interest income growth, booming trading revenues, and benign credit quality in recent bank previews have bolstered confidence, with major institutions like U.S. Bancorp set to report earnings today amid positive analyst estimates for EPS expansion. Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscore capital resilience amid hypothetical recessions. Realistic challenges include abrupt commercial real estate losses or liquidity strains from geopolitical tensions, though no acute signals have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Hacim
$11,342Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no US bank failure by April 30, driven by the sector's stability following the single closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in late January—the only FDIC-reported failure in 2026 to date. Robust Q1 net interest income growth, booming trading revenues, and benign credit quality in recent bank previews have bolstered confidence, with major institutions like U.S. Bancorp set to report earnings today amid positive analyst estimates for EPS expansion. Federal Reserve stress test scenarios underscore capital resilience amid hypothetical recessions. Realistic challenges include abrupt commercial real estate losses or liquidity strains from geopolitical tensions, though no acute signals have emerged in the past 30 days.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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