Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by repeated White House denials of consideration, including a February 2026 statement deeming it "not a priority," amid her ongoing 20-year sentence for sex-trafficking convictions tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Despite Maxwell's attorney, David Oscar Markus, publicly campaigning for clemency—including offers during a House deposition to testify fully on Epstein associates if granted leniency—no formal administration action has followed, even as of Markus's recent April 17 comments expressing hope. Political risks from the high-profile scandal, Trump's focus on other clemency for allies like donors and anti-abortion activists, and lack of insider signals outweigh speculative testimony incentives, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$539,331 Hac.
$539,331 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$539,331 Hac.
$539,331 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by repeated White House denials of consideration, including a February 2026 statement deeming it "not a priority," amid her ongoing 20-year sentence for sex-trafficking convictions tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Despite Maxwell's attorney, David Oscar Markus, publicly campaigning for clemency—including offers during a House deposition to testify fully on Epstein associates if granted leniency—no formal administration action has followed, even as of Markus's recent April 17 comments expressing hope. Political risks from the high-profile scandal, Trump's focus on other clemency for allies like donors and anti-abortion activists, and lack of insider signals outweigh speculative testimony incentives, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Hacim
$539,331Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by repeated White House denials of consideration, including a February 2026 statement deeming it "not a priority," amid her ongoing 20-year sentence for sex-trafficking convictions tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Despite Maxwell's attorney, David Oscar Markus, publicly campaigning for clemency—including offers during a House deposition to testify fully on Epstein associates if granted leniency—no formal administration action has followed, even as of Markus's recent April 17 comments expressing hope. Political risks from the high-profile scandal, Trump's focus on other clemency for allies like donors and anti-abortion activists, and lack of insider signals outweigh speculative testimony incentives, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$539,331Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against President Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by year's end, driven by repeated White House denials of consideration, including a February 2026 statement deeming it "not a priority," amid her ongoing 20-year sentence for sex-trafficking convictions tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Despite Maxwell's attorney, David Oscar Markus, publicly campaigning for clemency—including offers during a House deposition to testify fully on Epstein associates if granted leniency—no formal administration action has followed, even as of Markus's recent April 17 comments expressing hope. Political risks from the high-profile scandal, Trump's focus on other clemency for allies like donors and anti-abortion activists, and lack of insider signals outweigh speculative testimony incentives, though late-breaking legal developments could shift odds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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