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April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

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April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 10

May 10

1.15–1.19ºC 46%

1.20–1.24ºC 30%

1.25–1.29ºC 13%

1.10–1.14ºC 8%

Polymarket

$135,739 Обс.

1.15–1.19ºC 46%

1.20–1.24ºC 30%

1.25–1.29ºC 13%

1.10–1.14ºC 8%

Polymarket

$135,739 Обс.

<1.10ºC

$30,152 Обс.

3%

1.10–1.14ºC

$24,508 Обс.

8%

1.15–1.19ºC

$16,080 Обс.

46%

1.20–1.24ºC

$19,355 Обс.

30%

1.25–1.29ºC

$29,392 Обс.

13%

>1.29ºC

$16,253 Обс.

3%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, with 81% odds across 1.15–1.29°C bins, reflecting cooling from March's 1.48°C anomaly—the fourth-warmest March on record per Copernicus ERA5 data released April 8. Persistent near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March) and ENSO-neutral conditions, favored at 80% through April–June by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, sustain elevated warmth amid transitioning Pacific patterns. WMO and Copernicus seasonal forecasts signal widespread above-normal land temperatures for April–June, though monthly variability introduces uncertainty; full April bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA are due late April.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$135,739
Дата завершення
May 10, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19°C above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline, with 81% odds across 1.15–1.29°C bins, reflecting cooling from March's 1.48°C anomaly—the fourth-warmest March on record per Copernicus ERA5 data released April 8. Persistent near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March) and ENSO-neutral conditions, favored at 80% through April–June by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, sustain elevated warmth amid transitioning Pacific patterns. WMO and Copernicus seasonal forecasts signal widespread above-normal land temperatures for April–June, though monthly variability introduces uncertainty; full April bulletins from Copernicus and NOAA are due late April.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$135,739
Дата завершення
May 10, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1.15–1.19ºC» з 46%, далі «1.20–1.24ºC» з 30%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» згенерував $135.7K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 23, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» — «1.15–1.19ºC» з 46%. Наступний — «1.20–1.24ºC» з 30%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.