Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in the June 2026 top-two contest, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 36th congressional district. The seat’s D+21 partisan voter index, heavy Democratic registration edge, and consistent history of large margins underpin the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Houston Brignano. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, with limited Republican fundraising and no competitive polling to suggest shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow, such as a major national wave, late scandal, or health event involving the incumbent, though none have materialized in recent months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-36 House Election Winner
CA-36 House Election Winner
$35,241 Обс.
$35,241 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$35,241 Обс.
$35,241 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,297 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$28,944 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in the June 2026 top-two contest, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 36th congressional district. The seat’s D+21 partisan voter index, heavy Democratic registration edge, and consistent history of large margins underpin the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Houston Brignano. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, with limited Republican fundraising and no competitive polling to suggest shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow, such as a major national wave, late scandal, or health event involving the incumbent, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$35,241Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in the June 2026 top-two contest, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 36th congressional district. The seat’s D+21 partisan voter index, heavy Democratic registration edge, and consistent history of large margins underpin the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Houston Brignano. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, with limited Republican fundraising and no competitive polling to suggest shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow, such as a major national wave, late scandal, or health event involving the incumbent, though none have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$35,241Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu’s commanding primary performance, securing roughly 61 percent of the vote in the June 2026 top-two contest, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in California’s 36th congressional district. The seat’s D+21 partisan voter index, heavy Democratic registration edge, and consistent history of large margins underpin the 95 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee against Republican Houston Brignano. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, with limited Republican fundraising and no competitive polling to suggest shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow, such as a major national wave, late scandal, or health event involving the incumbent, though none have materialized in recent months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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