José Maria Neves leads trader consensus at 67.5% as the PAICV incumbent entering the November 15, 2026, presidential vote, bolstered by his party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory that delivered a National Assembly majority and positioned Francisco Carvalho as prime minister-designate. This outcome reflects the party’s strengthened organizational base and continuity in Cape Verde’s semi-presidential system. Opposition figures from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with lower-probability names such as Milton Paiva, Joana Rosa, and Casimiro de Pina, trail significantly, as no major late-campaign shifts or cross-party endorsements have altered the balance. Scheduled first-round balloting and potential runoff dynamics remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust implied probabilities.