Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing in the December 2026 Guinea-Bissau presidential election after emerging as the strongest opposition figure in the disputed November 2025 vote, where he claimed victory with backing from the PAIGC-aligned PAI–Terra Ranka coalition before results were annulled by the military coup. Umaro Sissoco Embaló trails despite his prior incumbency, as the coup that ousted him and the subsequent transitional rule under Horta Inta-A Na Man have fragmented his support base. The recent September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent of voters, expands presidential authority and imposes a five-year continuous residency requirement, reshaping eligibility and campaign dynamics ahead of the December 6 vote. With twelve candidates and no dominant party machine, consolidation behind any contender hinges on alliances, regional ethnic mobilization, and military or institutional positioning in the post-coup environment.