Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 4.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,028,810 Обс.
$1,028,810 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 4.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,028,810 Обс.
$1,028,810 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$174,566 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$364,926 Обс.
4%
No change
$188,198 Обс.
71%
25 bps increase
$179,317 Обс.
27%
50+ bps increase
$121,802 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,028,810Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$1,028,810Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings near 4% year-over-year, driven by energy costs tied to Middle East developments and AI-related spending, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the labor market stable—unemployment at 4.1% and muted wage growth—the market assigns a 70.5% implied probability to no change, reflecting data-dependent caution under Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance-light approach. A 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual hawkish risks ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and intervening CPI and payroll releases, while deeper cuts remain below 5% combined. Recent moderate prints have reinforced the hold bias without eliminating upside rate risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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