Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto's commanding 13-point reelection victory in 2024 within the D+4 district anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 75% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Despite Republican primary frontrunner Thomas Chalifoux leading at 52% on prediction markets, GOP recruitment efforts have faltered amid Soto's fundraising edge and strong Hispanic voter base in Orange and Osceola counties. Recent uncertainty stems from Gov. Ron DeSantis delaying but advancing a special legislative session on congressional redistricting—potentially targeting FL-09—elevating Republican odds to 24.5% as traders weigh map changes ahead of August 18 primaries. No recent polls available; ratings remain Solid or Likely Democratic.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,727 Обс.
75%
Republican Party
$706 Обс.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto's commanding 13-point reelection victory in 2024 within the D+4 district anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 75% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Despite Republican primary frontrunner Thomas Chalifoux leading at 52% on prediction markets, GOP recruitment efforts have faltered amid Soto's fundraising edge and strong Hispanic voter base in Orange and Osceola counties. Recent uncertainty stems from Gov. Ron DeSantis delaying but advancing a special legislative session on congressional redistricting—potentially targeting FL-09—elevating Republican odds to 24.5% as traders weigh map changes ahead of August 18 primaries. No recent polls available; ratings remain Solid or Likely Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,433Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto's commanding 13-point reelection victory in 2024 within the D+4 district anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 75% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Despite Republican primary frontrunner Thomas Chalifoux leading at 52% on prediction markets, GOP recruitment efforts have faltered amid Soto's fundraising edge and strong Hispanic voter base in Orange and Osceola counties. Recent uncertainty stems from Gov. Ron DeSantis delaying but advancing a special legislative session on congressional redistricting—potentially targeting FL-09—elevating Republican odds to 24.5% as traders weigh map changes ahead of August 18 primaries. No recent polls available; ratings remain Solid or Likely Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$2,433Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Darren Soto's commanding 13-point reelection victory in 2024 within the D+4 district anchors trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 75% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Despite Republican primary frontrunner Thomas Chalifoux leading at 52% on prediction markets, GOP recruitment efforts have faltered amid Soto's fundraising edge and strong Hispanic voter base in Orange and Osceola counties. Recent uncertainty stems from Gov. Ron DeSantis delaying but advancing a special legislative session on congressional redistricting—potentially targeting FL-09—elevating Republican odds to 24.5% as traders weigh map changes ahead of August 18 primaries. No recent polls available; ratings remain Solid or Likely Democratic.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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