Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 31°C in Chongqing on May 5, 2026, driven by official observational data from the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport station—the market's resolution source via China Meteorological Administration records—showing a peak of 31°C reached mid-afternoon amid hazy sunshine and stable atmospheric conditions. Current hourly readings confirm cooling trends as the diurnal cycle progresses, with no model consensus from numerical weather prediction outputs indicating further intensification before local midnight. This aligns with early May climatology, where highs average 26–28°C but can spike modestly under clear skies. A challenge would require an anomalous late-evening heat burst from subsidence or clear-sky radiation, defying observed upper-air stability and remaining daylight constraints. Final data expected post-midnight.