AEMET, Spain’s national meteorological agency, has issued consistent forecasts projecting a daily maximum of 33°C in Madrid on June 7 under stable anticyclonic conditions and typical early-summer insolation. Ensemble model guidance from ECMWF and local observations align closely with this value, placing it at the upper end of the climatological range for the date without entering heat-wave thresholds. The near-certain market pricing on 33°C reflects this convergence of official data and real-time station measurements at Retiro. A late-afternoon convective cell or unexpected increase in cloud cover could cap the peak one degree lower, while any last-minute model shift toward greater warming would be required to push readings to 34°C or above.