Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on May 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 12?
18°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
$206,736 Обс.
$206,736 Обс.
May 12, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
19°C <1%
$206,736 Обс.
$206,736 Обс.
May 12, 2026
16°C or below
$12,551 Обс.
No
17°C
$68,532 Обс.
No
18°C
$21,298 Обс.
Yes
19°C
$15,835 Обс.
No
20°C
$19,801 Обс.
No
21°C
$26,527 Обс.
No
22°C
$9,987 Обс.
No
23°C
$6,739 Обс.
No
24°C
$9,829 Обс.
No
25°C
$7,891 Обс.
No
26°C or higher
$7,747 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 10, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Обсяг
$206,736Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:15 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$206,736Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:15 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in an implied probability of virtually 100% for a highest temperature of 18°C in Madrid on May 12, 2026, driven by AEMET's latest observations and short-range forecasts showing peak readings of 18.4°C at key stations like Retiro and Barajas Airport by late afternoon, amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers capping warming. Current conditions feature variable cloudiness tending to clear slightly, light westerly winds, and central-hour precipitation probabilities, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus for subdued highs below 20°C under this transitional weather pattern. Final AEMET readings expected by midnight could confirm resolution, though an improbable late-evening solar break might push toward 19°C if clouds dissipate fully.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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