Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 29–31°C for the September 11 high, with 30°C narrowly leading. Persistent showers and thunderstorms, fueled by the Habagat, limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, while high humidity and light variable winds reduce the potential for strong daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with scattered rain, supporting maximum temperatures near the September climatological average of 31°C but with notable day-to-day variability from convective timing. Traders weigh these factors against historical analogs showing occasional brief clear spells that could push readings slightly higher, though model consensus currently favors the 29–30°C band. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the observation window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on September 11?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 11?
30°C 27%
31°C 23%
32°C 15%
29°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
11%
29°C
13%
30°C
29%
31°C
26%
32°C
15%
33°C
9%
34°C or higher
9%
30°C 27%
31°C 23%
32°C 15%
29°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
$205 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$267 Обс.
1%
26°C
$0 Обс.
3%
27°C
$32 Обс.
6%
28°C
$20 Обс.
11%
29°C
$0 Обс.
13%
30°C
$16 Обс.
29%
31°C
$7 Обс.
26%
32°C
$0 Обс.
15%
33°C
$0 Обс.
9%
34°C or higher
$0 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 29–31°C for the September 11 high, with 30°C narrowly leading. Persistent showers and thunderstorms, fueled by the Habagat, limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, while high humidity and light variable winds reduce the potential for strong daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with scattered rain, supporting maximum temperatures near the September climatological average of 31°C but with notable day-to-day variability from convective timing. Traders weigh these factors against historical analogs showing occasional brief clear spells that could push readings slightly higher, though model consensus currently favors the 29–30°C band. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Обсяг
$545Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 29–31°C for the September 11 high, with 30°C narrowly leading. Persistent showers and thunderstorms, fueled by the Habagat, limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, while high humidity and light variable winds reduce the potential for strong daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with scattered rain, supporting maximum temperatures near the September climatological average of 31°C but with notable day-to-day variability from convective timing. Traders weigh these factors against historical analogs showing occasional brief clear spells that could push readings slightly higher, though model consensus currently favors the 29–30°C band. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$545Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over Metro Manila are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around 29–31°C for the September 11 high, with 30°C narrowly leading. Persistent showers and thunderstorms, fueled by the Habagat, limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, while high humidity and light variable winds reduce the potential for strong daytime heating. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with scattered rain, supporting maximum temperatures near the September climatological average of 31°C but with notable day-to-day variability from convective timing. Traders weigh these factors against historical analogs showing occasional brief clear spells that could push readings slightly higher, though model consensus currently favors the 29–30°C band. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the observation window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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