**Trader consensus on the San Francisco high temperature for September 17 centers on the narrow 70–73°F range, with 70–71°F holding a slim 43.5% market-implied edge over 72–73°F at 36.5%.** Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a high near 70–73°F under partly cloudy skies, with morning marine-layer stratus potentially delaying warming before southwesterly flow allows limited afternoon clearing. This outcome aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 70.7°F, while recent early-month heat (including a 94°F reading on September 9) has given way to more typical onshore conditions that suppress extremes. Model spread on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight probability split, with lower outcomes (68–69°F) priced at just 11% reflecting limited downside risk from persistent fog or stronger marine influence. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs expected overnight will clarify whether modest warming pushes probabilities toward the upper bin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 17?
70-71°F 44%
72-73°F 42%
68-69°F 10%
74-75°F 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 17, 2026
63°F or below
1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
44%
72-73°F
42%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
2%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 44%
72-73°F 42%
68-69°F 10%
74-75°F 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 17, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Обс.
1%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
2%
66-67°F
$0 Обс.
4%
68-69°F
$67 Обс.
10%
70-71°F
$83 Обс.
44%
72-73°F
$1,229 Обс.
42%
74-75°F
$232 Обс.
8%
76-77°F
$0 Обс.
2%
78-79°F
$0 Обс.
2%
80-81°F
$0 Обс.
2%
82°F or higher
$2,304 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the San Francisco high temperature for September 17 centers on the narrow 70–73°F range, with 70–71°F holding a slim 43.5% market-implied edge over 72–73°F at 36.5%.** Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a high near 70–73°F under partly cloudy skies, with morning marine-layer stratus potentially delaying warming before southwesterly flow allows limited afternoon clearing. This outcome aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 70.7°F, while recent early-month heat (including a 94°F reading on September 9) has given way to more typical onshore conditions that suppress extremes. Model spread on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight probability split, with lower outcomes (68–69°F) priced at just 11% reflecting limited downside risk from persistent fog or stronger marine influence. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs expected overnight will clarify whether modest warming pushes probabilities toward the upper bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,915Дата завершення
Sep 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the San Francisco high temperature for September 17 centers on the narrow 70–73°F range, with 70–71°F holding a slim 43.5% market-implied edge over 72–73°F at 36.5%.** Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a high near 70–73°F under partly cloudy skies, with morning marine-layer stratus potentially delaying warming before southwesterly flow allows limited afternoon clearing. This outcome aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 70.7°F, while recent early-month heat (including a 94°F reading on September 9) has given way to more typical onshore conditions that suppress extremes. Model spread on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight probability split, with lower outcomes (68–69°F) priced at just 11% reflecting limited downside risk from persistent fog or stronger marine influence. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs expected overnight will clarify whether modest warming pushes probabilities toward the upper bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,915Дата завершення
Sep 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the San Francisco high temperature for September 17 centers on the narrow 70–73°F range, with 70–71°F holding a slim 43.5% market-implied edge over 72–73°F at 36.5%.** Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a high near 70–73°F under partly cloudy skies, with morning marine-layer stratus potentially delaying warming before southwesterly flow allows limited afternoon clearing. This outcome aligns closely with the long-term September average high of roughly 70.7°F, while recent early-month heat (including a 94°F reading on September 9) has given way to more typical onshore conditions that suppress extremes. Model spread on cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight probability split, with lower outcomes (68–69°F) priced at just 11% reflecting limited downside risk from persistent fog or stronger marine influence. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs expected overnight will clarify whether modest warming pushes probabilities toward the upper bin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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