Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 Обс.
$167,649 Обс.
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
Yes
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 Обс.
$167,649 Обс.
May 4, 2026
18°C or below
$986 Обс.
No
19°C
$1,503 Обс.
No
20°C
$1,175 Обс.
No
21°C
$14,562 Обс.
No
22°C
$20,456 Обс.
No
23°C
$14,130 Обс.
No
24°C
$13,136 Обс.
No
25°C
$19,181 Обс.
No
26°C
$22,838 Обс.
No
27°C
$31,251 Обс.
No
28°C or higher
$28,431 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$167,649Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$167,649Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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