Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
30°C 100%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$101,456 Обс.
$101,456 Обс.
Jul 9, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$101,456 Обс.
$101,456 Обс.
Jul 9, 2026
23°C or below
$3,991 Обс.
No
24°C
$3,721 Обс.
No
25°C
$4,123 Обс.
No
26°C
$3,657 Обс.
No
27°C
$3,843 Обс.
No
28°C
$6,224 Обс.
No
29°C
$19,459 Обс.
No
30°C
$13,631 Обс.
Yes
31°C
$18,733 Обс.
No
32°C
$8,963 Обс.
No
33°C or higher
$15,111 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$101,456Дата завершення
Jul 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$101,456Дата завершення
Jul 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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