The @khamenei_ir account, which issues archival statements attributed to the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has maintained low posting volume since his death earlier in 2026, typically releasing only a handful of historical quotes or commemorative items per week absent major religious observances or official announcements. Recent activity in early August clustered around Arbaeen-related themes but then tapered, consistent with the account’s pattern of infrequent updates managed by institutional handlers rather than daily leadership communications. With no scheduled high-profile events, diplomatic developments, or religious milestones falling precisely within August 18–25, traders assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five posts, viewing sustained low output as the established baseline. Higher ranges remain possible only if unexpected institutional statements or commemorations arise, though such spikes have been rare in the post-transition period.