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Політика·Південна Корея

Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

icon for Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Політика·Південна Корея

Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11% шанс
Polymarket

$21,566 Обс.

11% шанс
Polymarket

$21,566 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a supermajority in South Korea’s National Assembly, making passage of an impeachment motion requiring two-thirds support (200 of 300 seats) structurally improbable without substantial cross-party defections.** The opposition People Power Party lacks the numbers to force such a vote on its own, and recent legislative efforts have stalled along party lines. Lee took office in June 2025 following Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal over the December 2024 martial law declaration. Through mid-2026 he maintained approval ratings in the 50–60% range, with his party securing gains in the June 2026 local elections despite minor dips tied to ballot issues. A June 2026 citizen petition calling for impeachment gathered over 100,000 signatures and reached committee review, yet advanced no further given the ruling party’s control of the chamber and absence of scandals capable of fracturing its ranks ahead of the 2028 legislative cycle. Traders price these institutional and political realities into the high probability that no successful motion will pass before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns where supermajorities shield presidents from removal absent extraordinary defections or crises. No scheduled events or confirmed developments in the coming months appear positioned to alter this balance.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Обсяг
$21,566
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a supermajority in South Korea’s National Assembly, making passage of an impeachment motion requiring two-thirds support (200 of 300 seats) structurally improbable without substantial cross-party defections.** The opposition People Power Party lacks the numbers to force such a vote on its own, and recent legislative efforts have stalled along party lines. Lee took office in June 2025 following Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal over the December 2024 martial law declaration. Through mid-2026 he maintained approval ratings in the 50–60% range, with his party securing gains in the June 2026 local elections despite minor dips tied to ballot issues. A June 2026 citizen petition calling for impeachment gathered over 100,000 signatures and reached committee review, yet advanced no further given the ruling party’s control of the chamber and absence of scandals capable of fracturing its ranks ahead of the 2028 legislative cycle. Traders price these institutional and political realities into the high probability that no successful motion will pass before the end of 2026, consistent with historical patterns where supermajorities shield presidents from removal absent extraordinary defections or crises. No scheduled events or confirmed developments in the coming months appear positioned to alter this balance.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Обсяг
$21,566
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 11% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 11¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 11%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?» згенерував $21.6K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 5, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?» — 11% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 11% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

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