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Геополітика·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Market icon
Геополітика·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Jun 30

Jun 30

3% шанс
Polymarket

$14,364 Обс.

3% шанс
Polymarket

$14,364 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's Legislative Yuan opposition bloc—Kuomintang (52 seats) and Taiwan People's Party (8 seats)—initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in December 2025 over alleged constitutional violations in fiscal law disputes, passing the preliminary motion but falling short of the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 votes) needed for formal impeachment. Public hearings concluded in January 2026 without gaining Democratic Progressive Party defections, leaving trader consensus firmly at 97.1% "No" ahead of the scheduled May 19 vote. High confidence stems from entrenched partisan lines and historical precedent of failed cross-party support in divided legislatures. Realistic shifts would require a major scandal, resignations, or by-elections altering seat math before June 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Обсяг
$14,364
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's Legislative Yuan opposition bloc—Kuomintang (52 seats) and Taiwan People's Party (8 seats)—initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in December 2025 over alleged constitutional violations in fiscal law disputes, passing the preliminary motion but falling short of the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 votes) needed for formal impeachment. Public hearings concluded in January 2026 without gaining Democratic Progressive Party defections, leaving trader consensus firmly at 97.1% "No" ahead of the scheduled May 19 vote. High confidence stems from entrenched partisan lines and historical precedent of failed cross-party support in divided legislatures. Realistic shifts would require a major scandal, resignations, or by-elections altering seat math before June 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Обсяг
$14,364
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 3% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 3¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 3%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?» згенерував $14.4K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 2, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?» — 3% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 3% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

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