Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
10°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$10,646 Обс.
$10,646 Обс.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$10,646 Обс.
$10,646 Обс.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$1,112 Обс.
No
8°C
$825 Обс.
No
9°C
$1,431 Обс.
No
10°C
$3,560 Обс.
Yes
11°C
$519 Обс.
No
12°C
$1,156 Обс.
No
13°C
$188 Обс.
No
14°C
$357 Обс.
No
15°C
$546 Обс.
No
16°C
$361 Обс.
No
17°C or higher
$590 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,646Дата завершення
May 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$10,646Дата завершення
May 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 10°C in Shanghai on May 1, driven by confirmed early morning observations from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations, such as Xujiahui observatory, recording exactly 10°C amid a cooling trend following April 30's near-10°C minimum. This aligns with refined GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts initially projecting 11–13°C, influenced by northerly winds ushering cooler continental air and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai limit further drops. Scenarios challenging this include prolonged clear skies and light winds overnight enabling sub-10°C radiative cooling, though diurnal heating and model consensus deem it improbable as the day progresses toward resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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