Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka holds commanding trader consensus at 95% implied probability to win Newark's May 12, 2026, nonpartisan mayoral election, driven by his 12-year record of achievements highlighted in a major April 1 campaign speech at NJPAC and strong incumbency advantages including name recognition and local political machine support. Certified challengers like Asha Coates-Hamlet and Douglas Davis remain minor figures with limited visibility, as noted in February analyses deeming none credible threats. Recent community events, such as the April 14 Neighborhood Branding Initiative unveiling, reinforce Baraka's momentum. A runoff looms only if no candidate exceeds 50% on election night, but upset scenarios—such as a late-breaking scandal or unusually high challenger turnout—could narrow the gap despite structural barriers.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNewark Mayoral Election
Newark Mayoral Election
Ras Baraka 96%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.3%
Douglas Davis 1.0%
Nasheedah Singleton <1%
$14,569 Обс.
$14,569 Обс.
Ras Baraka
96%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
1%
Douglas Davis
1%
Nasheedah Singleton
1%
Sheila Montague
1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Tanisha Garner
<1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 96%
Asha Coates-Hamlet 1.3%
Douglas Davis 1.0%
Nasheedah Singleton <1%
$14,569 Обс.
$14,569 Обс.
Ras Baraka
96%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
1%
Douglas Davis
1%
Nasheedah Singleton
1%
Sheila Montague
1%
Jhamar Youngblood
<1%
Tanisha Garner
<1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Debra Salters
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka holds commanding trader consensus at 95% implied probability to win Newark's May 12, 2026, nonpartisan mayoral election, driven by his 12-year record of achievements highlighted in a major April 1 campaign speech at NJPAC and strong incumbency advantages including name recognition and local political machine support. Certified challengers like Asha Coates-Hamlet and Douglas Davis remain minor figures with limited visibility, as noted in February analyses deeming none credible threats. Recent community events, such as the April 14 Neighborhood Branding Initiative unveiling, reinforce Baraka's momentum. A runoff looms only if no candidate exceeds 50% on election night, but upset scenarios—such as a late-breaking scandal or unusually high challenger turnout—could narrow the gap despite structural barriers.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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