Darializa Avila Chevalier leads trader consensus in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District at 57 percent implied probability, ahead of longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat at 41.5 percent, reflecting a closely contested race shaped by recent endorsements and campaign dynamics. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s late-May endorsement of the democratic socialist challenger, alongside support from the Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats, has elevated the profile of this Upper Manhattan and Bronx contest and narrowed Espaillat’s traditional advantages as chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. A June 4 report on Avila Chevalier’s deleted past social media posts drew immediate attention from party leaders including House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, underscoring the tight timeline before ballots are cast and the influence of progressive versus establishment coalitions on voter turnout in the district.