**Recent polling and seat projections indicate that while the Parti Québécois leads in popular support ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, it is unlikely to secure the 64 seats needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly.** Latest surveys from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis (late August 2026) show the PQ at approximately 29%, followed by the CAQ at 24%, the Liberals at 22%, the Conservatives at 15%, and Québec solidaire at around 10%. Aggregated projections from 338Canada and similar models place the PQ in the mid-to-high 40s seats on average, with majority outcomes occurring in only about 10% of simulations. The CAQ has gained ground during the early campaign, eroding Liberal support and creating a more competitive multi-party dynamic. The race features significant vote fragmentation among non-sovereigntist parties and a high share of undecided voters (often exceeding 40%), which limits any single party's ability to convert polling leads into a legislative majority. The PQ benefits from strong francophone support but faces structural barriers in a fragmented electorate. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring "No" on a PQ majority.