Trump’s approval rating in 2026 has remained subdued, averaging in the mid-to-high 30s amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and persistent inflation pressures that have elevated gasoline and living costs. Recent polls show net approval near or below –20, with erosion even among strong conservatives and independents as voters link administration policies to higher prices and prolonged military involvement. The November midterms represent the nearest major test, with generic ballot gaps favoring Democrats in some surveys and potential shifts in congressional control that could alter legislative momentum or public perception. Any de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz tensions, clearer economic indicators, or policy adjustments could influence whether ratings rebound before year-end or remain constrained by these headwinds.