The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$32,040 KL.
$32,040 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
26%
$32,040 KL.
$32,040 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$17,770 KL.
74%
Democratic Party
$14,271 KL.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$32,040Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,040Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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