Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.9% implied probability traders assign to a Republican victory. The rural, agricultural northeastern district has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points, including Crawford’s 73% win in 2024, supported by its partisan composition and limited Democratic organizational presence. The Republican primary was canceled after only the incumbent filed, while the Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green advanced without opposition. No recent polls or candidate developments have altered baseline expectations. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to late-cycle events such as major scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unexpected national turnout surges, though the district’s structural fundamentals make such reversals improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$26,556 KL.
$26,556 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
1%
$26,556 KL.
$26,556 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,297 KL.
96%
Democratic Party
$10,259 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.9% implied probability traders assign to a Republican victory. The rural, agricultural northeastern district has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points, including Crawford’s 73% win in 2024, supported by its partisan composition and limited Democratic organizational presence. The Republican primary was canceled after only the incumbent filed, while the Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green advanced without opposition. No recent polls or candidate developments have altered baseline expectations. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to late-cycle events such as major scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unexpected national turnout surges, though the district’s structural fundamentals make such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,556Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.9% implied probability traders assign to a Republican victory. The rural, agricultural northeastern district has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points, including Crawford’s 73% win in 2024, supported by its partisan composition and limited Democratic organizational presence. The Republican primary was canceled after only the incumbent filed, while the Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green advanced without opposition. No recent polls or candidate developments have altered baseline expectations. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to late-cycle events such as major scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unexpected national turnout surges, though the district’s structural fundamentals make such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$26,556Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.9% implied probability traders assign to a Republican victory. The rural, agricultural northeastern district has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 30 points, including Crawford’s 73% win in 2024, supported by its partisan composition and limited Democratic organizational presence. The Republican primary was canceled after only the incumbent filed, while the Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green advanced without opposition. No recent polls or candidate developments have altered baseline expectations. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to late-cycle events such as major scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unexpected national turnout surges, though the district’s structural fundamentals make such reversals improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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