The tight contest between Claude Fable 5.1 Max at 51% implied probability and Other at 42% underscores trader uncertainty over which frontier large language model will top independent benchmarks by September 14. Competitive dynamics center on Anthropic's recent model iterations versus potential releases or updates from OpenAI, Google, and xAI, with key differentiators including demonstrated gains in complex reasoning, multimodal performance, context handling, and safety evaluations. Historical patterns show model rankings can shift quickly with new capability tests or fine-tuning announcements, keeping the field open despite current sentiment favoring the Fable variant. Traders are watching for any last-minute developer updates or third-party leaderboard releases in the coming days.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtclaude-fable-5.1-max 51%
Other 30%
claude-opus-5-high 24%
claude-opus-4-6-high 19%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
38%
Other
30%
claude-opus-5-high
24%
claude-opus-4-6-high
19%
claude-opus-5-max
18%
claude-fable-5.1-max 51%
Other 30%
claude-opus-5-high 24%
claude-opus-4-6-high 19%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 14, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$80 KL.
38%
Other
$0 KL.
30%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 KL.
24%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$0 KL.
19%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 KL.
18%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tight contest between Claude Fable 5.1 Max at 51% implied probability and Other at 42% underscores trader uncertainty over which frontier large language model will top independent benchmarks by September 14. Competitive dynamics center on Anthropic's recent model iterations versus potential releases or updates from OpenAI, Google, and xAI, with key differentiators including demonstrated gains in complex reasoning, multimodal performance, context handling, and safety evaluations. Historical patterns show model rankings can shift quickly with new capability tests or fine-tuning announcements, keeping the field open despite current sentiment favoring the Fable variant. Traders are watching for any last-minute developer updates or third-party leaderboard releases in the coming days.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Khối lượng
$80Ngày kết thúc
Sep 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tight contest between Claude Fable 5.1 Max at 51% implied probability and Other at 42% underscores trader uncertainty over which frontier large language model will top independent benchmarks by September 14. Competitive dynamics center on Anthropic's recent model iterations versus potential releases or updates from OpenAI, Google, and xAI, with key differentiators including demonstrated gains in complex reasoning, multimodal performance, context handling, and safety evaluations. Historical patterns show model rankings can shift quickly with new capability tests or fine-tuning announcements, keeping the field open despite current sentiment favoring the Fable variant. Traders are watching for any last-minute developer updates or third-party leaderboard releases in the coming days.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$80Ngày kết thúc
Sep 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest between Claude Fable 5.1 Max at 51% implied probability and Other at 42% underscores trader uncertainty over which frontier large language model will top independent benchmarks by September 14. Competitive dynamics center on Anthropic's recent model iterations versus potential releases or updates from OpenAI, Google, and xAI, with key differentiators including demonstrated gains in complex reasoning, multimodal performance, context handling, and safety evaluations. Historical patterns show model rankings can shift quickly with new capability tests or fine-tuning announcements, keeping the field open despite current sentiment favoring the Fable variant. Traders are watching for any last-minute developer updates or third-party leaderboard releases in the coming days.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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